The Future Of Gaming Is Getting Smaller
If 2024 had a theme for the video game industry, it would be the growing sense that the current trajectory of the industry is unsustainable. Despite, or possibly due to the large number of high-profile releases last year, big publishers such as EA, Sony, and Microsoft are cancelling projects and laying off employees to cut costs amid lower-than-expected growth. These problems are exacerbated by the longer length of time needed to make these Triple-A titles which potentially causes a vicious cycle where canceled projects today lead to fewer games tomorrow. Given these dire circumstances, it’s easy to feel pessimistic about the future of the industry. Luckily, there is a cure for video games’ current ailments. It’s indies.
One thing to clarify is that the video game industry is still growing, but not as quickly as these companies or their shareholders expected. Part of this is due to the massive explosion of growth it experienced during COVID-19 lockdowns which was never going to continue at the same rate when people could go outside again. Video games offered many stuck in their homes an outlet to explore new places that they (usually) weren’t able to in the middle of a pandemic. Now that the world has returned to a (relative) state of normalcy, people are spending more money on real experiences instead of virtual ones. As proof of this, Sony recently announced it was going to miss its sales target of PS5 consoles sold in 2024 and lowered its expectations from 24 million to 21 million. One could look at this fact and think that things look bad, but it is important to recognise that this means 21 million people are looking for new experiences that Sony can’t offer as the Japanese company also recently announced that it will have no new major first-party IP released until 2025. There is an audience of 21 million people who are hungry to use their new consoles and independent studios are going to show them the menu using the Triple-I Initiative and other indie showcases.
The Triple-I Initiative was a 45-minute showcase that aired on April 10th and revealed new projects from over 30 independent studios such as Evil Empire (Dead Cells), Red Hook Games (Darkest Dungeon), Megacrit (Slay the Spire), and many more. Despite these teams’ previous success and obvious talent, an announcement on Twitter or sandwiched between triple-A trailers at Summer Game Fest from any of these studios would not generate the same amount of focused excitement as anything shown by a major publisher or by Sony, Microsoft and/or Nintendo.
The hope is that by pooling their resources for their own dedicated show, these teams and smaller publishers can attract new eyes to their projects. Maybe someone loved Slay the Spire and wants to see what Megacrit does next only to end up intrigued by Ghostship Games' next title. With fewer games from Triple-A publishers, there will be fewer showcases as well, leaving an opening that independent studios are only too happy to fill.
Even big publishers are using indies to fill in the gaps in their release schedules. Within the past few months, both Microsoft and Nintendo have held their own indie showcases titled ID@Xbox and Nintendo Indie Direct respectively. While they may not have the same impact as a full-blown Direct or an Xbox Summer Showcase, but it still gives owners of their platforms a taste of something they may not be expecting and helps fill out their library. Nintendo in particular seems to be having an abnormally dry year due to the rumoured delay of its next console so while games like Little Kitty, Big City may not sell as much or be as anticipated as Tears of the Kingdom, it is still something to get people using their Switches while they wait for the next Mario or Metroid Prime 4. As the constraints holding back triple-A games grow tighter, the platform owners are going to become increasingly reliant on these smaller titles.
Independent studios aren't beholden to the same structure as triple-A titles. Independently owned studios don't have shareholders demanding unlimited growth forever, their goal is to make enough money to pay their employees and hopefully fund their next game. They are also not concerned with making their next-gen title look significantly better than everything else on the market. They know they can't compete on pure detail, so they usually rely on creative art styles. triple-A development appears to have hit a wall of diminishing returns with games like Final Fantasy VII Rebirth looking only marginally better than its predecessor on a last-gen console. Meanwhile, these indies are able to create timeless looks, much like the retro titles many of them are inspired by, using significantly fewer resources. Indies are also able to take advantage of the quickly improving technology available to them, unlike larger games which have entered a period of marginal improvements. Most gamers think indies are only capable of delivering 2D animations, but as games like Penny's Big Breakaway and Bomb-Rush Cyberpunk are proving, these developers have quickly entered the 3D realm offering modern takes on nostalgic classics.
Indie titles do not only rely on their looks, but they are also currently responsible for the most original ideas in the industry. Their reduced reliance on massive profits allows them to take riskier bets, much like the current hit title, Balatro. At first glance, this appears to be a basic poker game but quickly reveals itself as a creative deck-building roguelike, which is a mash-up of genres pioneered by indies. Their willingness to try new things is proving the independent sector is where new ideas are being born which is a huge boon since many gamers are getting tired of the same exhausting open map designs of Ubisoft and its ilk. While indies may not be able to compete in scale with these 100-plus hour monstrosities, they don’t have to. If you look at the titles released in 2024 so far, smaller games and indies are dominating the conversation.
The most talked about games of 2024 have been independent or smaller titles. Palworld started the year quickly selling over 10 million copies in a week. Other titles such as Balatro have sold 1 million copies and also have proven massively popular with fans after being released with little marketing compared to FF7R’s billboard-covering push. The big players are also having luck with these smaller titles with the most successful game from a triple-A publisher this year being Helldivers 2 developed by independent studio Arrowhead Games. This smaller title has sold over 8 million copies possibly due to its retail price of $40 instead of the now-normal $70. On the other side of that coin, the big triple-A game of 2024, Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth had everything going for it and still reportedly fell short of sales expectations. Despite being a new entry in an established IP, a remake of a beloved classic, and receiving critical praise, the game’s conversation dried up faster than its demand. While global sales are unavailable, it was reported by Famitsu that the game experienced a 90% drop in sales in Japan during its second week, resting at less than 290,000 copies sold in the country. If a game like Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth isn’t a surefire success anymore, nothing is.
The big publishers are not going anywhere. When Grand Theft Auto VI releases in 2025, it will most likely be the biggest game ever released, if not the biggest media release of all time. However, as projects get more expensive, timelines get lengthened and more developers are needed to ship these gargantuan titles, games like GTA VI are going to be the exception, not the norm. There will always be PlayStation State of Plays, and Summer Game Fests, but expect these to have less The Last of Us-s and more Shovel Knight-s. Indies are providing an off-ramp for the bloated, stale titles plaguing the video game industry by offering creative experiences at a reasonable price and scale. With all of these factors working for them, the indies could be the future of gaming.
